Latest News on Housing Market: Not a Surprise

The latest news on property data and Home Prices should not come as a surprise and we should not begin celebrating an end to the crisis. In our article Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional, we discussed the three critical phases of real estate selling patterns that have attributed to the housing bust.

The latest news and public records indicate that these critical phases are performing to historical levels. That is, the summer seasonal market is showing a correction to the cyclical change that began in 2007. Now the million dollar question is, will the fall seasonal market (which affects Florida, Arizona and Nevada) continue to show recovery or will the markets pause until the next “Selling Season in 2010?”

Our report: Housing in Crisis (published in March 2009) addressed the broader issue of excess housing. Again, there is good news on this front. The excess housing is being absorbed at an annualized rate of about 1 million units. Having a glut of 5 million units at the end of 2008, this means we have another three to four years before the overall markets start to recover.
Housing Recovery is the focal point here. We predict that the Northeast will continue to show stability, with modest corrections in local markets from 3% to 5% through the end of 2010. The Midwest remains strong and will experience similar stability. In the five biggest areas where excess housing still dictates selling patterns, we are predicting that Arizona will recover sooner than sections of Florida and Vegas.

The latest news on the housing market is not a surpirse. Recovery and Stability are the focal points and we should start to see signs of this in the upcoming months.
No one should be surprised when the next Housing Index comes out in September which will show a further strengthening of the market and continued adjustment in housing values in an upward trend. Our report Median Sales Price published in March of 2009 indicated that the overall Median Sales Price would move upward to $215,000 to $220,000 by year end. The current median sale price as reported by the Commerce Department is a $210,000, an increase of over 5% from the low of $201,400 early this year.